ANALISIS VOLATILITAS HARGA DAGING SAPI MURNI DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN PENDEKATAN ARCH GARCH

Abstrak

Indonesia has an important commodity for the community, namely beef including in Central Java Province. One of the foodstuffs that produce protein is beef where its usefulness is important to meet human nutritional needs. Besides being important for consumption needs, this commodity also contributes in economic terms because beef is produced by the community ranging from small to large scale. This research further leads to reviewing the volatility of beef prices in Central Java Province through the ARCH GARCH method and daily data (time series) of beef on January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020. The results of the study showed the most appropriate model for calculating the volatility of beef prices is the model (1,2). The results of the model predictions show that the movement of beef price volatility tends to be stable when after eid al-Fitr, and it is expected that changes or spikes in beef prices in the future will be less minimal.